Investment market insights
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Monthly commentary, June 2022
Posted: 12 Jul 2022
To cap off an eventful 2nd half of the 2022 financial year, we saw dire global economic and market headwinds not seen since the GFC over a decade ago. With the US, the largest economy in the world teetering on falling into a 'hard' or 'soft' landing recession, we also saw its share market post its worst start to a calendar year in over half a century. Investors holding traditional defensive assets, in the form of long maturity bonds, have also felt the pain of large negative returns over the year - something not seen for over 30 years.
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Monthly commentary, May 2022
Posted: 12 Jun 2022
During May, inflation data and subsequent global central bank reaction remained centre stage. In Australia, the release of March quarter inflation numbers, which showed the headline rate surging 5.1% over the rolling twelve months (the fastest pace in 21 years), precipitated the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to increase its cash rate for the first time in 11½ years by 0.25%.
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Monthly commentary, April 2022
Posted: 12 May 2022
Once again, the month of April saw inflation continue to dominate the headlines. Central Banks commenced transitioning to their next phase of monetary policy settings. Key economic indicators remain mixed, with supply chains issues remaining a concern, consumer & business confidence fell - leading to most risk markets ending the month in the red.
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Monthly commentary, March 2022
Posted: 14 Apr 2022
March was a month full of central bank decisions with two of the key developed market economies choosing to raise official interest rates. As the world continues to deal with the fall out of the war in Ukraine, downstream impacts to asset prices and supply chains, most risk markets ended the month in the green.
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Monthly commentary, February 2022
Posted: 15 Mar 2022
February saw continued equity market volatility due to concerns surrounding inflation, supply chain constraints, monetary policy and rising bond yields. February also saw an escalation in geopolitical tensions with Russia invading Ukraine adding further uncertainty to markets. Only time will tell what this will mean for central bank policy, economic growth and financial markets in general.
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Monthly commentary, January 2022
Posted: 7 Feb 2022
While only a month into 2022, the year has well and truly started with a bang. From increasing omicron concerns, equity market volatility, record levels of inflation, hawkish central bank rhetoric and rising bond yields - January was not a month for the faint hearted.
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Monthly commentary, December 2021
Posted: 27 Jan 2022
2021 was a whirlwind of central bank policy, inflation, supply chain disruption, geopolitical tension and climate change activity. December was no exception to this with a raft of positive economic data showing the progress of our path to recovery. We now look to 2022 and the next phase of the pandemic.
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Monthly commentary, November 2021
Posted: 10 Dec 2021
Fears over the emergence of the Omicron variant dominated the global economy this month as a fourth wave of COVID-19 rushes through Europe. Inflationary concerns continued throughout the world as most central banks reaffirmed that interest rates will not increase before 2023 despite market expectations for 2022.
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Monthly commentary, October 2021
Posted: 29 Nov 2021
Climate change concerns and energy woes dominated the global economy this month as nations prepared for the UN's Climate Change Conference (COP26) and continued to respond to a tightening energy market. Focus on China continues as investors keep their eyes on the property sector, looking for any further indications of instability after September's Evergrande "almost-crisis". Financial markets, spurred on by strong September quarter earnings, sparked the bulls across Australia, the US and Europe.
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Monthly commentary, September 2021
Posted: 13 Oct 2021
Markets this month were hit by a mixed bag full of events, from energy pricing pressures, nuclear diplomacy, name calling in the US senate and the 'wait and see' credit crisis of China's property giant, Evergrande. Europe and China began to roll out policy to cool down a tightening energy market over concerns of expected Winter surges in demand. An AUKUS alliance was formed between Australia, the UK and the US which included the building of nuclear submarines for Australia, while France was left out in the cold.
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Monthly commentary, August 2021
Posted: 13 Sep 2021
Countries and markets around the world continued to react to the resurgence of COVID-19's Delta variant. At home, Australia finished the month with 60% of its population under stay-at-home orders reporting record numbers of daily COVID cases. Abroad, COVID management created run on effects in global trade and supply chains that caused manufacturing measures to compress. Inflation continues to be a growing concern in Europe and the US as central banks signal monetary policy updates might be coming soon. China continues its regulatory crackdown aimed at tackling "foreign-related rule of law".
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Monthly commentary, July 2021
Posted: 23 Aug 2021
The Delta strain continues to run rampant across Sydney, with case numbers continuing to soar and some form of restrictions expected to last for months. Abroad, the Tokyo Olympics commenced despite a total crowd ban due to strict public health orders. Back at home, Brisbane celebrated being named the 2032 Olympic host. COVID-19 related restrictions eased in the UK, with Freedom Day occurring and all COVID related health orders removed. Throughout the rest of the world however, a dire situation is unfolding as Delta's unprecedented virulence is forcing countries to reimplement restrictions and reassess their reopening strategies.
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Monthly commentary, June 2021
Posted: 9 Aug 2021
Is our economic primed for a post-lockdown rebound? Since the pandemic hit our shores, one of the top words that comes to mind to describe the Australian economy and share market is 'resilient'. The Australian economy did not shrink by as much as what policymakers were anticipating last year - in fact, it did not even come close! By the March quarter of this year, economic output was back above its pre-pandemic level. The share market, after falling sharply over late February to late March last year, also bounced back pretty quickly. Indeed, it regained its all-time peak within fifteen months. This sort of recovery was not witnessed in the last two recessions in Australia or in the GFC-related downturn.
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Monthly commentary, June 2021
Posted: 28 Jul 2021
June started with the continuing outbreak of COVID-19 in Melbourne and by the end of the month, Sydney was feeling the full force of the Delta variant. The resulting three-week lockdown has seen considerable pressure being placed on the domestic economy. Whilst the RBA stayed firm on its 0.10% cash rate at its June 1 meeting, industry consensus is leaning further towards a pre-2024 rate hike, despite what has been indicated by the RBA. Neighbouring China will allow couples to have a third child to combat a falling birth rate, whilst in Europe consumer confidence rose from -5.1 to -3.3 in June, representing a return to pre-pandemic levels. Global COVID-19 vaccinations reached 2 billion doses early in the month.
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Monthly commentary, May 2021
Posted: 9 Jul 2021
Over the course of May markets saw global inflation fears catalyse volatility. While the high vaccination rates across Europe and the US led to increased consumer sentiment, a rapidly deteriorating outbreak of COVID-19 throughout India sent shockwaves around the world.
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Monthly commentary, April 2021
Posted: 4 Jun 2021
April saw life in Europe, the UK and the United States slowly return back to what could be described as the new Covid-19 normal. Unfortunately, the perfect storm unravelled towards the end of the month with India facing rising daily Covid-19 case numbers and insufficient medical supplies.
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Monthly commentary, March 2021
Posted: 4 Jun 2021
As the first quarter of the year ended, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on risk markets almost seemed non-existent. Over March we saw US markets return to all-time highs, further upgrades to the global economic outlook, additional US stimulus packages and central banks reaffirming monetary policy and inflation expectations.
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Monthly commentary, February 2021
Posted: 30 Mar 2021
A year on from the first locally acquired cases of COVID-19 outside of China, physical and social distancing remains, however, economic data indicates economies around the world are on the road to recovery.
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Monthly commentary, January 2021
Posted: 30 Mar 2021
We look forward to 2021 being a year of recovery - both in a physical and economic sense. January saw the continued rollout across North America, Europe and Asia of three major vaccines, the second impeachment of former President Donald Trump, the inauguration of President Joe Biden and the rise of the Reddit community.
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2020 Year in Review
Posted: 10 Feb 2021
2020 was an unprecedented year on many levels. For the first time in many of our lifetimes, we experienced physical shutdowns and social restrictions across the global economies in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, widespread economic recessions, dramatic market crashes with corresponding recoveries at velocity never seen before and geo-political tensions reaching boiling point on many fronts.
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Monthly commentary, December 2020
Posted: 10 Feb 2021
As 2020 drew to a close, the final month of what had been an unprecendented year on many levels well and truly ended with a bang. In the month of December we saw the US Share markets continue to trade at all time highs, a Brexit deal reached, Australia - China trade tensions boil, new strains of COVID-19 emerge and ongoing battles on the result of the November 3rd US Presidential Election.
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Monthly commentary, November 2020
Posted: 11 Dec 2020
This month saw record COVID-19 infections across US and Europe with many countries heading back into physical lockdowns. November also saw mixed economic data and a new US President elect. Despite all, the strong hopes of a vaccine before Christmas led our local share market to have one of its strongest months since 1988.
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Monthly commentary, October 2020
Posted: 24 Nov 2020
With COVID-19 cases sparking renewed concerns for a number of nations worldwide, both corporates and governments continue to adjust their strategies to account for the persisting economic impact of the pandemic. Polling data predicted a victory for the Biden Administration in the US Presidential Election.
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Monthly commentary, September 2020
Posted: 29 Oct 2020
Global markets reacted negatively to the continued uncertainty sparked by the COVID-19 pandemic. Australians eagerly awaited the upcoming Federal Budget, which will weigh heavily on the strength of the economy as it recovers. The race for the US Presidental election is 'heating up', with investors bracing for the eventual economic impact.
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Monthly commentary, August 2020
Posted: 25 Sep 2020
In August, there were varied levels of confidence across economies globally. While there are positive signs of recovery, the fear remains as we continue to see a 'second wave' of COVID-19 cases. The effectiveness of new stimulus introduced by Governments and Central Banks will weigh heavily on the success of the global economic recovery going forward.
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Monthly commentary, July 2020
Posted: 28 Aug 2020
Over July, varying economic results were reported throughout the world. While the hunt for a successful COVID-19 vaccine continues, Governments and central banks are focusing on new and additional forms of stimulus and relief, to the support the dire economic state of many nations at present.
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2019/2020 End of Financial Year Commentary
Posted: 4 Aug 2020
FY 2019/20 began with strong momentum across most financial markets. However, as the year progressed, unemployment drifted higher, and coupled with benign inflationary pressures, many countries began to lower interest rates further in response. As the financial year headed towards March, the COVID-19 coronavirus rapidly spread across the globe, with containment measures shutting down entire economies. The impact of this economic shutdown appears to have reversed much of the economic and financial progress over the last few years and the world now finds itself in unprecedented circumstances. Major economies are now focused on delivering stimulus to support stability as the world battles containment of the pandemic.
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Monthly commentary, June 2020
Posted: 24 Jul 2020
June experienced continual, albeit slower economic growth against the last 2 months of surprise positive news. While most countries appear to be relaxing restrictions, various second wave outbreaks indicate that this global pandemic is far from over. Black Lives Matter protests have played centre stage throughout the media, with less attention placed on the precarious pandemic related situation that the world remains in.
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Monthly commentary, May 2020
Posted: 24 Jun 2020
Following the surprise market recovery experienced in April, May has seen many indexes continue their early stages of bouncing back. As countries begin to relax their Coronavirus restrictions, the positive effect of reopening major economies has been felt globally. However, some uncertainty remains over how quickly economies can be reopened without risking a second wave of COVID-19 cases.
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Monthly commentary, April 2020
Posted: 27 May 2020
After the significant market decline in March, we saw equities rebound strongly in April. While the pandemic continues to spread, countries that have introduced effective measures in controlling the virus begun putting in place plans to gradually reopen their economies. Governments and central banks continued to roll out stimulus measures to mitigate the damage caused by the economic shutdown providing support to markets over the month. However, depsite the market rebound, uncertainty remains over the pandemic's ongoing impact to societal aspects of how populations will live post COVID-19, and the trajectory of global growth over the coming quarters.
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Monthly commentary, March 2020
Posted: 4 May 2020
With COVID-19 taking centre stage in what has become, over a short few weeks, both a medical and market crisis parelleled only by the two world wars and the great depression in the 1930s, markets over March were impacted with the sharpest declines investors have ever witnessed. The sell-off saw some of the highest proportion of assets underperform cash on a monthly basis for the first time in over 30 years.
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Monthly commentary, February 2020
Posted: 26 Mar 2020
Over the month of February, we saw the Coronavirus (COVID-19) threaten to derail the revival in global economic growth which began in the latter part of 2019. Domestically, the current account recorded its 3rd consecutive surplus. Unemployment rates moved further away from the RBA's goal. Equities were under pressure as the month closed, with the largest weekly declines since the GFC.
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Monthly commentary, January 2020
Posted: 28 Feb 2020
The Coronavirus outbreak has sent ripples through global financial markets; disrupting worldwide trade and supply chains, pressuring asset prices and forcing multinational businesses to make decisions around trade and employee wellbeing. Britain has been hit by a case of Brexit blues as the UK formally left the European Union.
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2019 Year in Review
Posted: 27 Feb 2020
Sluggish improvement in the domestic economy was further dulled by an ongoing US-China trade conflict. The Australian housing market recovered from the large market downturn in early 2019. Internationally central banks were active, with continued global easing of monetary policy. 'Populist' protests across the world centred on civil liberties and climate.
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Monthly commentary, December 2019
Posted: 23 Jan 2020
The US and China have agreed to a 'phase one' trade deal where the US will remove tariffs and China to make structural reforms and change trade practices.
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Monthly commentary, November 2019
Posted: 20 Dec 2019
The Australian economy delivers a back-to-back current account surplus of $7.9bn for Q3. US and China trade talks continue, with a 'phase one deal' potentially sliding into 2020.
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Monthly commentary, October 2019
Posted: 22 Nov 2019
The Reserve Bank lowered the cash rate in early October for the third time this year by 25 basis points to a record low of 0.75%; trade talks between the US and China were initiated in October, a partial deal yet to be agreed on.
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Monthly commentary, September 2019
Posted: 30 Oct 2019
Global oil prices surged mid-September after an attack on Saudi Arabian oil facilities; US-China trade tensions the primary reason for the Federal Reserve's 25bp rate cut; a rise in Australia's unemployment rate lifted projections of an RBA rate cut in October.
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Monthly commentary, August 2019
Posted: 26 Sep 2019
Heightened trade tensions following Trump's August announcement to increase tariffs on China resulted in a bout of market volatility. Fears of a looming recession returned to the markets after the inversion of the US Treasury 10-year-2-year bond yield.
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Monthly commentary, July 2019
Posted: 30 Aug 2019
The RBA delivered a further cut to the cash rate, followed by the US Fed Reserve who lowered interest rates for the first time in 11 years.
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Monthly commentary, June 2019
Posted: 31 Jul 2019
The RBA delivered its first move in its monetary policy since August 2016. Another temporary trade truce was formed between the US and China.
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Monthly commentary, May 2019
Posted: 26 Jun 2019
Trade conflict between the US and China escalated after months of seemingly progressive talks. Prime Minister Theresa May announced her resignation and the search for a new leader begins.
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Monthly commentary, April 2019
Posted: 1 Jun 2019
The first quarter equity market rally continues into April in light of dovish Central Banks and improving Chinese data.
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Quarterly commentary, March 2019
Posted: 30 Apr 2019
Global markets rebound strongly on consumer sentiment following a weak end to 2018. Domestic earnings post strongest quarter returns in almost a decade. Chinese economic policy and optimism in trade truce with the US drive performance in Asia.
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Monthly commentary, March 2019
Posted: 30 Apr 2019
A slowing economy remained a theme over March, while recession risks spooked markets following the inversion of the US treasury yield curve. China delivered on new economic reforms, as the ECB announced renewed liquidity provisions.
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Monthly commentary, February 2019
Posted: 29 Mar 2019
Earnings season at home sees strongest monthly gains in markets since mid-2016. Optimism lifted as the US extends a trade truce with China and progress on the Brexit front.
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Monthly commentary, January 2019
Posted: 20 Feb 2019
Global markets recovered from the tumbles seen in late 2018. Improved sentiment regarding trade talks, US Fed patience, Chinese stimulus and Brexit supported the markets, however global growth has remained subdued and geopolitical concerns remain.
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2018 Year in Review
Posted: 21 Jan 2019
Geopolitical events were the centre focus in 2018 as protectionism has shifted away the trend of globalisation. Global growth slowed through the year whilst markets have seen poor performance and high volatility, particularly in the final quarter.
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Monthly commentary, December 2018
Posted: 21 Jan 2019
Global equity markets continued to fall throughout the month, marking the end to the worst year since the GFC. Economic slowdown fears was a key theme globally in December, as concerns such as the everlasting US-China trade talks, Brexit uncertainty and an oversupply of oil brought instability to markets.