Investment market insights
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Monthly commentary, February 2020
Posted: 26 Mar 2020
Over the month of February, we saw the Coronavirus (COVID-19) threaten to derail the revival in global economic growth which began in the latter part of 2019. Domestically, the current account recorded its 3rd consecutive surplus. Unemployment rates moved further away from the RBA's goal. Equities were under pressure as the month closed, with the largest weekly declines since the GFC.
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Monthly commentary, January 2020
Posted: 28 Feb 2020
The Coronavirus outbreak has sent ripples through global financial markets; disrupting worldwide trade and supply chains, pressuring asset prices and forcing multinational businesses to make decisions around trade and employee wellbeing. Britain has been hit by a case of Brexit blues as the UK formally left the European Union.
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2019 Year in Review
Posted: 27 Feb 2020
Sluggish improvement in the domestic economy was further dulled by an ongoing US-China trade conflict. The Australian housing market recovered from the large market downturn in early 2019. Internationally central banks were active, with continued global easing of monetary policy. 'Populist' protests across the world centred on civil liberties and climate.
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Monthly commentary, December 2019
Posted: 23 Jan 2020
The US and China have agreed to a 'phase one' trade deal where the US will remove tariffs and China to make structural reforms and change trade practices.
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Monthly commentary, November 2019
Posted: 20 Dec 2019
The Australian economy delivers a back-to-back current account surplus of $7.9bn for Q3. US and China trade talks continue, with a 'phase one deal' potentially sliding into 2020.
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Monthly commentary, October 2019
Posted: 22 Nov 2019
The Reserve Bank lowered the cash rate in early October for the third time this year by 25 basis points to a record low of 0.75%; trade talks between the US and China were initiated in October, a partial deal yet to be agreed on.
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Monthly commentary, September 2019
Posted: 30 Oct 2019
Global oil prices surged mid-September after an attack on Saudi Arabian oil facilities; US-China trade tensions the primary reason for the Federal Reserve's 25bp rate cut; a rise in Australia's unemployment rate lifted projections of an RBA rate cut in October.
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Monthly commentary, August 2019
Posted: 26 Sep 2019
Heightened trade tensions following Trump's August announcement to increase tariffs on China resulted in a bout of market volatility. Fears of a looming recession returned to the markets after the inversion of the US Treasury 10-year-2-year bond yield.
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Monthly commentary, July 2019
Posted: 30 Aug 2019
The RBA delivered a further cut to the cash rate, followed by the US Fed Reserve who lowered interest rates for the first time in 11 years.
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Monthly commentary, June 2019
Posted: 31 Jul 2019
The RBA delivered its first move in its monetary policy since August 2016. Another temporary trade truce was formed between the US and China.
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Monthly commentary, May 2019
Posted: 26 Jun 2019
Trade conflict between the US and China escalated after months of seemingly progressive talks. Prime Minister Theresa May announced her resignation and the search for a new leader begins.
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Monthly commentary, April 2019
Posted: 1 Jun 2019
The first quarter equity market rally continues into April in light of dovish Central Banks and improving Chinese data.
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Quarterly commentary, March 2019
Posted: 30 Apr 2019
Global markets rebound strongly on consumer sentiment following a weak end to 2018. Domestic earnings post strongest quarter returns in almost a decade. Chinese economic policy and optimism in trade truce with the US drive performance in Asia.
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Monthly commentary, March 2019
Posted: 30 Apr 2019
A slowing economy remained a theme over March, while recession risks spooked markets following the inversion of the US treasury yield curve. China delivered on new economic reforms, as the ECB announced renewed liquidity provisions.
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Monthly commentary, February 2019
Posted: 29 Mar 2019
Earnings season at home sees strongest monthly gains in markets since mid-2016. Optimism lifted as the US extends a trade truce with China and progress on the Brexit front.
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Monthly commentary, January 2019
Posted: 20 Feb 2019
Global markets recovered from the tumbles seen in late 2018. Improved sentiment regarding trade talks, US Fed patience, Chinese stimulus and Brexit supported the markets, however global growth has remained subdued and geopolitical concerns remain.
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2018 Year in Review
Posted: 21 Jan 2019
Geopolitical events were the centre focus in 2018 as protectionism has shifted away the trend of globalisation. Global growth slowed through the year whilst markets have seen poor performance and high volatility, particularly in the final quarter.
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Monthly commentary, December 2018
Posted: 21 Jan 2019
Global equity markets continued to fall throughout the month, marking the end to the worst year since the GFC. Economic slowdown fears was a key theme globally in December, as concerns such as the everlasting US-China trade talks, Brexit uncertainty and an oversupply of oil brought instability to markets.
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Monthly commentary, November 2018
Posted: 19 Dec 2018
Uncertainty over US monetary policy, US-China trade relations, the wavering strength of the EU economy, and oil price were in focus during November, further impacting market volatility and the direction of major equity market indices.
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Monthly commentary, October 2018
Posted: 23 Nov 2018
Global employment continued to improve in October, however markets reacted to trade risks, rising bond yields, Brexit uncertainty and concern over Italy's fiscal position.
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Monthly commentary, September 2018
Posted: 05 Nov 2018
Investors remained cautious in September as markets felt the headwinds of rising bond yields, global trade uncertainty and growing debt concerns in Italy.
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Monthly commentary, August 2018
Posted: 18 Sep 2018
Despite positive global economic growth and US equities advancing, markets were hit with mixed results against a backdrop of geopolitics and trade tensions.
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Monthly commentary, July 2018
Posted: 22 Aug 2018
Amidst rising tensions of a full-blown trade war between the US and China, positive earnings results and strong global economic data ensured markets remained robust in July. This was supported by the US economy recording its strongest pace of growth (4.1% annualised) since September 2014.
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2017/18 End of Financial Year Commentary
Posted: 27 Jul 2018
The financial year ended with the global economy experiencing significant levels of uncertainty, including ongoing geopolitical shocks, especially in the second half of the year with highly unwelcome prospects of a trade war. Signs of synchronised global economic growth, led by the United States, accompanied by strong earnings growth, protected the market against the rising trade tensions and political surprises from governments and world leaders.
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Monthly commentary, June 2018
Posted: 27 Jul 2018
Despite healthy growth, a lack of market conviction, along with increasing fears regarding trade wars, has led to increased risks surrounding the future direction of the global economy. In June, US inflation hit the Federal Reserve's inflation target for the first time in 2 years, reaching a coveted 2%.
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Quarterly commentary - June 2018
Posted: 16 Jul 2018
Rising concerns over the possibility of an escalating US-China trade war unsettled global share markets in June. Many market indices fell in the second half of the month, but not by enough to drag all into negative territory. However, between June 12 and the markets? close on June 29, global market capitalisation fell by US$1.75 trillion.
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Monthly commentary, May 2018
Posted: 13 Jun 2018
Geopolitics impacted markets in May with US global trade talks with China and the European Union, the highly anticipated North Korea-US Summit and the US withdrawing from the nuclear deal with Iran. This was accompanied by Italy's government election and fears of an 'Italexit', sparking volatility in markets and weighing on consumer sentiment. Despite this global equity markets ended the month in positive territory.
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Monthly commentary, April 2018
Posted: 21 May 2018
Global markets mostly managed to rise in April, after starting the month under pressure from China's tit-for-tat response to US President Donald Trump's announcement of tariffs. April ended with stunning progress on the Korean peninsula, with the meeting of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and the South Korean president, Moon Jae-in, and indications of a formal treaty between the two nations.
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Monthly commentary, February 2018
Posted: 20 March 2018
Stock markets hit the skids in February, unnerved by a sharp rise in bond yields and volatility that resulted from what looked like good news for the US economy. Sparking the falls was news that average hourly earnings in the US rose by 2.9% for the 12 months to January, much higher than expected (and the fastest rate since 2009), which stoked fears of rising inflation. European and Asian markets followed their US counterparts lower in the first half of February. From mid-month, the markets rebounded, although most ended February in the red.
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Monthly commentary, January 2018
Posted: 19 February 2018
Led by US and Asian markets, world markets roared into the New Year, although late in the month, caution crept back into markets after one of the best starts to a year in recent history. It was the best start to a year for the broad US benchmark, the S&P 500 index, since 1987.
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Monthly commentary, December 2017
Posted: 18 Jan 2018
US equity markets surged into year-end, bolstered by strong global economic growth, healthy company earnings and the passage of President Trump's US$1.5 trillion tax-reform package, described as the biggest US tax overhaul since 1986. In Europe, political uncertainty weighed on stock markets, but economic news continued to impress.
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2017 year in review: political turbulence ... firming growth and bullish markets
Posted: 8 Jan 2018
Both the global economy and financial markets are tracking towards their best year since the initial rebound from the 2008-09 global crisis. All this has been despite a more fractious, and unsettled political backdrop. The pickup has also been undeterred by a continued withdrawal of stimulus from the Fed.
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Monthly commentary, November 2017
Posted: 18 Dec 2017
US equity markets pushed higher in November on the back of solid corporate earnings and synchronised global economic growth, although the European markets retreated in November after two straight months of gains, and the UK stock market fell in November as continued uncertainty in domestic politics outweighed confidence in the UK's economic outlook.
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Inside the market with Corrin Collocott
Posted: 8 Dec 2017
BT Chief Investment Officer Corrin Collocott explores the recent strength of equity markets and the implications for the BT investment portfolios and considers whether equities are now overvalued.
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Monthly commentary, October 2017
Posted: 20 Nov 2017
Markets were mostly stronger in October, contradicting investors' fears that the month of October historically has a predisposition to the negative. Synchronised global economic growth and improving company profits continued to be the driving themes.
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Monthly commentary, September 2017
Posted: 20 Oct 2017
Continued signs that the world economy is growing in synchronisation for the first time in 10 years buoyed world markets in September, with improving economic data in the US, Europe and Japan, while China's managed slowdown continues to be closely watched.
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Monthly commentary, August 2017
Posted: 19 Sep 2017
Geo-political concerns were front and centre over August, with North Korea ramping up its missile test program, and President Trump in turn ratcheting up his rhetoric, saw 'safe haven' assets see plenty of action while markets remianed steady.
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Monthly commentary, July 2017
Posted: 24 Aug 2017
US equities were bolstered by improving corporate profit results and economic data in July, despite ongoing challenges facing the Trump presidency. However, markets across Europe and Australia were more subdued. The US dollar continued to depreciate against major currencies.
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Quarterly commentary - June 2017
Posted: 21 Jul 2017
The June quarter was characterised by healthy gains across US markets, despite a late-quarter technology sell-off, indifferent performance from the European bourses and strong rises across Asia, with the exception of China's Shanghai Composite Index.
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Monthly commentary, June 2017
Posted: 19 Jul 2017
Global equities went into reverse over June as our dollar moved higher at the same time as markets were looking for direction when many indices are at record highs. Losses were centered across Europe while the ASX finished the financial year with a solid 14% total return.
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Monthly commentary, May 2017
Posted: 16 Jun 2017
Global equities rose over May amid signs of improving economic growth and healthy corporate earnings. Several key indices hit record highs as pro-European Union candidate Emmanuel Macron won the French presidential election. However, persistent questions about political stability in the US, Europe and elsewhere tempered those gains. Australian equities went into reverse, impacted by concerns of the Bank levy and softer commodity prices.
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Monthly commentary, April 2017
Posted: 17 May 2017
Over the month of April we saw global equities continue their momentum driven rally, shrugging off mixed economic data releases and worries over the outcome of the French election and geopolitical issues surrounding North Korea and Syria.
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Monthly commentary, March 2017
Posted: 02 May 2017
Over the quarter, we saw the majority of equity markets deliver solid gains, underpinned by improving economic data across most developed and emerging markets.
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Monthly commentary, February 2017
Posted: 23 Mar 2017
With twists and turns a continuing theme as we move through Q1, 2017, February finished strongly positive for the major share market indices.
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Monthly commentary, January 2017
Posted: 14 Mar 2017
No doubt the story in 2017 will have its own twists and turns - political, market-related and economic - and expectations may shift, particularly as we start to get more detail around prospective policy changes in the US and a better sense of their ramifications globally.