Regular updates on activity across global markets and within asset classes. These insights are used in the management of Advance investment portfolios.
Our China 2.0 series explores the ways China's influence on the global economy is evolving and expanding. In the second note, we look at China's use of the New Silk Road initiative to expand trade, spearhead regional development, and build its cultural and political influence globally.
Tue, 19 Sep 2016 - pdf
Australia's housing market has played an important role in helping navigate the end of the mining boom. However, questions are now being asked about the risks arising from such an extended housing cycle. Have prices risen too far? Is there a risk of a crash in prices? How much longer can the cycle last? Are there any buyers left? Our conclusion is the housing market does not represent a significant risk but the attractiveness of housing as an asset class has deteriorated, and share markets offer better yield and opportunity for growth.
Tue, 6 Sep 2016 - pdf
The US election is shaping up as the next major risk event for 2016, with Brexit receding to the background. While Clinton is regarded as the status quo candidate, Trump represents significant policy uncertainty given his populist, anti-establishment proposals. Betting markets currently place only around a 25% chance of Trump winning office in November. But, as recently as a month ago, Trump was narrowly leading in the polls, so he should not be discounted. In this note, Tim Rocks, Head of Market Research & Strategy, considers what a Trump presidency could mean for the global economy and markets.
Fri, 2 Sep 2016 - pdf
Over the next decade, China will further develop its trade network through the New Silk Road Initiative, play an increasing role in regional development, grow its political influence, and will be a major innovator in ecommerce and clean energy. China’s influence is evolving and expanding, and Tim Rocks, Head of Market Research & Strategy, explores this in our China 2.0 series.
Fri, 26 Aug 2016 - pdf
The European economy has started to recover and is now growing faster than the US. But markets have been fretting about the health of the European banking system and the potential for banking stress to unravel the recovery. Tim Rocks, Head of Market Research & Strategy, argues these concerns are overblown. While profitability is weak, European banks have recapitalised, the European Central Bank (ECB) is lowering funding costs and governments appear willing to deal with the bad debt issue.
Fri, 12 Aug 2016 - pdf
Japan continues to flirt with recession and deflation, despite the bold plans from Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Business sentiment has weakened, the yen has appreciated, consumers remain concerned about income growth and the inflation rate is falling again.
Sun, 31 Jul 2016 - pdf
Australian shares have rebounded solidly and recovered all of their Brexit losses in recent weeks. Now at their highest level in over a year, Tim Rocks, Head of Market Research & Strategy, looks at what's next for Australian shares.
Wed, 27 Jul 2016 - pdf
Rapid and complementary advances in battery, solar and electric vehicle technology are combining to create one of the most significant transformations in economic history. By 2035, it is possible that most new cars will be electric and most new energy will come from solar power stored in our homes.
Wed, 20 Jul 2016 - pdf
Much of the commentary on the Brexit has focused on the negatives, but as with most things in life, there is a balance. Tim Rocks, Head of Market Research & Strategy, considers the alternative views and potential opportunities from the substantial market reaction.
Tue, 5 Jul 2016 - pdf
Tim Rocks considers what the remainder of 2016 may bring to the sharemarket as we approach the halfway mark.
Thu, 16 June 2016 - pdf
Tim Rocks recently toured China and provides his thoughts on China's economic outlook.
Wed, 01 June 2016 - pdf
Monetary policy has become more unorthodox in recent years, with several major central banks pushing interest rates into negative territory.
Fri, 20 May 2016 - pdf
Challenging times call for unusual solutions, and the idea of negative interest rates is particularly unorthodox.
Fri, 20 May 2016 - pdf
Equity markets have staged a rebound since the middle of February, after one of the worst starts to a year ever.
Fri, 29 Apr 2016 - pdf
Chinese authorities embarked on an ambitious reform program in 2013 focused on government financing, corruption and the overall structure of the economy.
Fri, 15 Apr 2016 - pdf
A global agreement on environment action finally exists
Tue, 12 Apr 2016 - pdf
The internet age is sparking a new wave of innovation and technological change. Australian companies were largely spectators to the last tech wave in the 1990s but, partly helped by a range of government initiatives and incentives, seem set to be larger beneficiaries this time around.
Tue, 12 Mar 2016 - pdf
The share value of banks has dropped sharply since the start of the year but Australian banks may have been unfairly tarred with the same brush as global banks.
Thu, 03 Mar 2016 - pdf
Monetary policies have slowly started to diverge, with the US looking at tighter policies while other countries are still focusing on further easing.
Fri, 26 Feb 2016 - pdf
Should we be concerned about another Global Financial Crisis?
Thu, 18 Feb 2016 - pdf
Tim considers the influence of oil prices on sharemarkets and whether this will be positive or negative over 2016.
Fri, 29 Jan 2016 - pdf
The start of 2016 has already seen volatility in sharemarkets, with concerns about China and emerging markets one of the key drivers. While these concerns are likely to linger across the year, BT Investment Solutions expects 2016 to be a reasonable year for asset markets.
Thu, 21 Jan 2016 - pdf
The start of 2016 has been volatile, with many investors questioning the outlook ahead and triggering reviews of strategic allocations.
Tue, 19 Jan 2016 - pdf
Equity and commodity markets have had a poor start to the year. Tim Rocks discusses current economic activity and his views of the implications for global markets.
Tue, 12 Jan 2016 - pdf
Further gains in global equity markets will depend on earnings growth. This year has not been a strong year for earnings but next year may see some changes.
Thu, 03 Dec 2015 - pdf
The Chinese economy has weakened much faster than most commentators expected this year. Some slowing was inevitable as China completed the most aggressive phase of its development.
Thu, 12 Nov 2015 - pdf
This fortnight, Tim Rocks considers why inflation has been weaker than expected since the GFC.
Fri, 30 Oct 2015 - pdf
This fortnight, Tim Rocks considers the factors behind China's slowdown and impact to investment markets.
Thu, 15 Oct 2015 - pdf
These commentaries have been prepared without taking into account our objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this, you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs.
This information has been prepared and issued by BT Funds Management Limited ACN 002916458. While the information contained in these updates has been prepared with all reasonable care, no responsibility or liability is accepted for any errors or omissions or misstatement however caused. All forecasts and estimates are based on certain assumptions which may change. If those assumptions change, our forecasts and estimates may also change.